Did the 2005 Cy Young Vote Cost This Pitcher The Hall of Fame?

Jake Cain

Jake Cain

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Last Updated: July 12th, 2024 by Jake Cain

In the annals of baseball history, few debates are as enduring or as hotly debated as the controversial 2005 American League Cy Young Award. Bartolo Colon of the Los Angeles Angels took home the prestigious accolade, but many ardent fans and analysts, especially those loyal to the Minnesota Twins, still argue that Johan Santana was snubbed. Throw Yankees’ closer Mariano Rivera into the mix, and you’ve got a perfect storm of controversy.

Key Takeaways:

  • Bartolo Colon won the 2005 AL Cy Young Award, but many believe Johan Santana and Mariano Rivera were more deserving.
  • Santana’s stats were superior to Colon’s, and Rivera’s dominance as a closer added another layer of debate.
  • This controversy highlights broader issues in award voting criteria and the evolving nature of baseball statistics.

The Vote:

Bartolo Colon emerged as the victor of the Cy Young race with 118 points, ahead of Yankees’ closer Mariano Rivera (68 points) and Twins’ ace Johan Santana (51 points). Colon garnered 17 of 28 first-place votes, while Rivera received eight, and Santana just three. The final tally left many scratching their heads, particularly given the statistical disparities between the pitchers (Twins Daily).

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The Numbers Speak:

Santana led the league in several key categories:

  • ERA: Santana (2.87) vs. Colon (3.48)
  • WHIP: Santana (0.97) vs. Colon (1.16)
  • Strikeouts: Santana (238) vs. Colon (157)
  • Innings Pitched: Santana (231.2) vs. Colon (222.2)

Santana was also superior in advanced metrics:

  • bWAR: Santana (7.2) vs. Colon (4.0)
  • fWAR: Santana (7.1) vs. Colon (4.1)
  • WPA: Santana (4.16) vs. Colon (2.77)

Despite these impressive statistics, the final vote did not reflect their superiority. According to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, Colon was the only pitcher named on every ballot, a fact that underscores the weight given to his 21-8 win-loss record.

The Mariano Rivera Factor:

Mariano Rivera, with his 1.38 ERA and 43 saves, was nothing short of exceptional. His dominance in the closer role was unmatched, yet being a reliever often puts you in a separate category altogether. Rivera threw just 78.1 innings compared to Santana and Colon’s 200+ innings, which seems to have worked against him in the final vote.

Even Colon acknowledged Rivera’s brilliance that year. “Mariano had a great year,” Colon said, thanking Rivera for teaching him how to throw his cut fastball. “I did think about the fact that maybe he was going to come away and be the winner” (Twins Daily).

Historical Context:

The preference for win totals over other pitching metrics was prevalent in the early 2000s. Colon’s 21 victories, the first such milestone for an Angels pitcher since 1974, undoubtedly played a significant role (New York Times). However, wins are a team-dependent statistic, and further scrutiny reveals how Santana’s and Rivera’s performances were overshadowed by their respective teams’ dynamics.

Beyond the Stats:

Examining the context of their respective teams provides additional insights. Colon’s Angels were a playoff-bound team, while Santana’s Twins finished a disappointing third in the AL Central. Rivera’s Yankees were always in the spotlight, making his dominance even more visible.

Santana’s ability to “equalize” any opponent with his devastating slider and changeup combo should have transcended his team’s overall performance. Meanwhile, Rivera’s Cutter was slicing through opponents like a hot knife through butter, yet he remained in the shadow of starting pitchers (Twins Daily).

Advanced Stats: A Modern Lens:

In today’s analytics-driven baseball world, Santana’s FIP (2.80) and his massive strikeout total would have likely earned him the Cy Young. Rivera’s advanced stats like WHIP (0.87) and FIP (2.15) also bolster his case as one of the game’s most dominant pitchers that year (Baseball Writers’ Association of America).

The “What If” Scenario:

Had Santana secured the 2005 Cy Young, he would have joined the elite ranks of three-time winners, a distinction that includes legends like Sandy Koufax and Pedro Martinez. This accolade could have significantly bolstered his Hall of Fame case. Despite Santana’s undeniable peak performance, his career was prematurely cut short by injuries, a factor that has hindered his Hall of Fame candidacy.

Similarly, if Rivera had clinched the award, it would have further cemented his legacy not just as the greatest closer, but as one of the greatest pitchers ever.

Conclusion:

The 2005 AL Cy Young voting controversy serves as a reminder of the evolving nature of baseball statistics and the subjective nature of award voting. While Bartolo Colon’s win is etched in history, the cases for Johan Santana and Mariano Rivera remain potent symbols of how traditional metrics can sometimes mislead. As advanced analytics continue to shape our understanding of the game, the debate over Santana’s and Rivera’s 2005 seasons stands as a testament to their brilliance and a clarion call for a more nuanced approach to evaluating greatness.

For those who witnessed Santana’s dominance and Rivera’s untouchable saves, the 2005 Cy Young Award will always remain a contentious topic. Whether you view it through the lens of traditional stats or modern analytics, one thing is clear: Johan Santana and Mariano Rivera’s 2005 seasons were nothing short of extraordinary.

According to Bleacher Report, Colon’s Cy Young win was one of the “10 most undeserving” in history, while Jayson Stark of ESPN famously argued Santana’s and Rivera’s cases post-vote.]

In the end, Santana and Rivera’s legacies, slightly marred by this controversial snub, continue to ignite passionate discussions among baseball fans. One thing’s for sure: 2005 will always be a year to remember in the Cy Young debate.