Last Updated: December 4th, 2024 by Jake Cain
In baseball’s 150-year history, no pitch has been more mystifying than the knuckleball. Thrown with virtually no spin, it dances through the air in unpredictable ways, making even the best hitters look foolish. Yet despite being nearly unhittable when thrown correctly, the pitch has almost vanished from professional baseball. From 2020 to 2023, it was essentially extinct in the major leagues.
Check out the video below from Baseball Doesn’t Exist on YouTube for a fascinating history lesson about the knuckleball
The Numbers Tell the Story
The decline is stark. From 2008 to 2017, pitchers threw an average of 3,486 knuckleballs per year in MLB. In the five years that followed, that number plummeted to just 210. To put that in perspective, Hall of Famer Tim Wakefield once threw 170 knuckleballs in a single game.
When It’s Good, It’s Unbeatable
The knuckleball’s potential is legendary. R.A. Dickey transformed from a struggling pitcher with a 5.55 ERA into a Cy Young Award winner by mastering it. Tim Wakefield saved his career and pitched until age 45. Even a 17-year-old girl named Chelsea Baker threw two perfect games with it and got to face the Tampa Bay Rays.
When It’s Bad, It’s Historically Bad
But here’s the problem: the margin for error is microscopic. When thrown perfectly, with zero spin, the ball moves in ways that seem to defy physics. But add just a hint of spin, and it becomes baseball’s equivalent of batting practice. Steven Wright went from being an All-Star in 2016 to posting an ERA over 8.00 the following year. Both Dickey and Wakefield share the MLB record for most home runs allowed in a game, giving up six each in a single start.
The Catcher’s Nightmare
Perhaps the biggest reason teams avoid the knuckleball is that it’s nearly impossible to catch. In 2016, Red Sox catcher Ryan Lavarnway set an MLB record by allowing four passed balls in a single inning while catching Steven Wright. The pitch is four times more likely to get past a catcher than any other pitch.
The problem is so severe that teams often need dedicated catchers just for knuckleball pitchers. The Red Sox once orchestrated an elaborate mission involving a private jet, cleared airspace, and a police escort just to get Doug Mirabelli – Wakefield’s personal catcher – to a game on time.
Analytics Killed the Knuckleball
Modern baseball’s obsession with analytics has dealt another blow to the knuckleball. Teams want pitchers throwing as hard as possible with maximum spin rates. The knuckleball does the opposite. Its volatility makes it hard to project performance, and the need for a specialized catcher creates roster headaches that analytics-driven front offices view as inefficient.
The Learning Problem
Despite its potential, learning the knuckleball is incredibly difficult. The Texas Rangers once established their own knuckleball school, guaranteeing jobs to pitchers who would focus exclusively on the pitch. None succeeded. Today, specialized training facilities charge $4,000 for two-week intensive courses, but success stories remain rare.
A New Hope?
However, San Diego Padres pitcher Matt Waldron might be showing a path forward. Unlike traditional knuckleballers who threw the pitch almost exclusively, Waldron uses it just 38% of the time and throws it harder than anyone in history at 84 mph. By mixing it with conventional pitches in the 90s, he’s creating a modern hybrid approach that’s proving effective while minimizing the traditional drawbacks.
The Future
Will Waldron’s success inspire a knuckleball revival? History suggests the pitch never truly dies. Every time baseball declares it extinct, someone brings it back in a new way. But for now, one of baseball’s most fascinating weapons remains largely holstered, waiting for the next generation to unlock its secrets.